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Market Overview
Read time 1.4 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. Two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were severed last week, disrupting connections between Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Lithuania. The incidents are suspected to be acts of sabotage, raising fears of hybrid warfare amid tensions over the Ukraine conflict. Subsea cables, which carry 99% of global intercontinental internet traffic, are critical infrastructure, and repairing them is both challenging and time-intensive. Investigations point to a possible deliberate act involving a Chinese cargo ship dragging its anchor along the seabed. While no culprit has been definitively identified, the event underscores vulnerabilities in global connectivity and the growing geopolitical stakes surrounding infrastructure security.

2. France’s political turmoil is rattling markets, with 10-year government bond yields equaling Greece’s for the first time, a striking signal of investor unease. At 3.001%, French yields now mirror Greece’s, despite the latter’s history of debt crises. The tension stems from Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s struggle to pass a 2025 budget featuring €60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts. With left- and right-wing factions threatening a no-confidence vote, the prospect of government collapse looms. While officials argue France's economy far outshines Greece’s, the stalemate highlights vulnerabilities, even as Greece enjoys a rebound with shrinking debt and steady growth.

3. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to impose steep tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico has sent ripples through the auto industry, with fears of disrupted supply chains and rising costs. While European automakers avoided mention in the initial announcement, concerns loom over future tariffs on EU auto exports. Ferrari stands out as a likely exception, given its high-end pricing and exclusive production in Maranello, Italy, allowing it to pass on costs to its affluent clientele. However, for brands like Porsche, which rely on Germany-based manufacturing and middle-class prices, higher tariffs could pose a significant challenge, potentially requiring costly shifts in production.

4. Headlines

   1. Global stocks have suffered since Trump’s election, which has raised the downside risks for most economies while only substantially raising the upside of the United States.

   2. International currencies have fallen since Trump’s election, which has caused a significant strengthening of the US dollar.

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Onwards and Upwards,

Liam Gill