🚀 February Inflation at 2.4%

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Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. U.S. consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in February, matching expectations and holding the annual inflation rate steady at 2.4%, its lowest level since May 2025. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also met forecasts with a 2.5% annual gain, driven primarily by persistent shelter costs and a 1.3% jump in apparel prices linked to recent tariff pressures. However, economists describe this report as the "calm before the storm," as the data predates the massive energy shock caused by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which sent crude oil toward $110 a barrel and pushed average gas prices from under $3.00 to over $3.50 in early March. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range at its March 18 meeting, the burgeoning "war premium" on energy and shipping costs has complicated the path for the deeper rate cuts desired by the administration and Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

2. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday authorized a historic release of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles, the largest in its 50-year history, to stabilize global markets reeling from the Iran war. This massive intervention represents roughly one-third of the agency's total public reserves and aims to mitigate a supply crisis that analysts call the largest in history, surpassing even the 1970s oil embargoes. While the announcement helped global benchmark Brent crude retreat from its $120 peak to approximately $90, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the move is only a temporary salve. Stable prices cannot return until the Strait of Hormuz is secured, as the current blockade by Iran has halted 20 million barrels of daily transit and slashed global LNG supplies by 20%, forcing advanced economies in Asia and Europe into a bidding war for available energy cargoes.

3. A landmark housing affordability bill, which advanced in the Senate with over 80 votes, is now facing significant delays in the House due to a controversial provision aimed at curbing corporate home ownership. The sticking point involves a President Trump-backed proposal to ban major investors from owning more than 350 single-family homes, a measure House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) warns will force the legislation into a lengthy conference committee for reconciliation. While Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) championed the bill as a "fantastic" bicameral success that includes a ban on central bank digital currencies, House Republicans and Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) expressed concerns that forcing companies to sell off inventory after seven years would choke off the capital needed for new construction. This legislative standoff threatens to stall one of the few bipartisan packages in a divided Congress, as lawmakers weigh the populist appeal of restricting institutional landlords against the potential risk of further depleting the nation’s housing supply.

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