🚀 House passes Trump's tax bill

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Market Overview
Read time 1.4 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. In a narrow 215-214 vote, the U.S. House passed President Trump’s sweeping new tax bill marking a major Republican victory and advancing the legislation to the Senate. Crafted to unite both moderates and hardliners, the bill includes permanent 2017 tax cuts, eliminates taxes on tips, imposes earlier Medicaid work requirements, and dramatically raises the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for some filers. Despite only needing a simple majority in the Senate via budget reconciliation, the bill’s path remains uncertain, as some GOP senators demand changes. Democrats unanimously opposed the bill, citing deep cuts to the social safety net and a CBO analysis warning it benefits the wealthy while harming the poorest Americans. Markets reacted negatively, concerned about ballooning deficits. Speaker Johnson aims to send the bill to Trump’s desk by July 4.

2. U.S. home sales in April fell to their slowest pace for that month since 2009, down 0.5% from March and 2% year-over-year, as high prices, economic uncertainty, and rising mortgage rates kept buyers sidelined. Despite the addition of seven million jobs since the pandemic, NAR’s Lawrence Yun noted home sales remain stuck at 75% of normal levels. Inventory surged 21% from a year ago, reaching its highest level in five years, though still shy of a balanced market. The median existing home price hit \$414,000—an April record—but grew just 1.8%, the slowest since mid-2023. Price drops in the South and West hint at softening conditions, especially as cancellation rates rose to 7% and homes lingered longer on the market. While luxury sales remained more resilient, Yun warned their momentum is fading amid stock market volatility.

3. A pause on Trump’s steepest tariffs has led U.S. importers to boost short-term orders from China but not enough to avoid looming risks of higher prices, thinner retail inventory, and reduced consumer choice. While some companies are rushing orders to capitalize on the 90-day tariff reprieve, nearly 60% of respondents say holiday orders haven’t resumed, citing ongoing recession fears and muted consumer demand. Even with tariffs dropping from 125% to 30%, businesses still face high costs due to stacking levies, with many small brands saying they can’t absorb them. As ports and logistics firms brace for a limited container rebound, executives warn of potential shelf shortages and selective price hikes within one to three months. Meanwhile, retailers navigate uncertainty over consumer spending, shipping rates, and trade policy, with most planning cautiously and shifting sourcing to “China-plus-one” strategies in countries like Vietnam and India.

4. Headlines

   1. OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, Softbank and Cisco are partnering to build an AI campus in the United Arab Emirates.

   2. A UBS survey found that the wealthiest Americans still primarily invest in US equities and have started reducing private equity investments to invest in US stocks.

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