🚀 Japan investing $36B in US oil, gas and critical minerals

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Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. President Trump has unveiled a $36 billion "first tranche" of Japanese investment into the American industrial heartland, a direct byproduct of the landmark 2025 trade deal that traded tariff reductions for massive capital commitments. By slashing levies on Japanese imports to 15%, the administration has secured funding for three cornerstone projects across Ohio, Texas, and Georgia, effectively leveraging Tokyo’s balance sheet to bolster U.S. energy dominance. Leading the pack is the Portsmouth Powered Land Project in Ohio, a $33 billion natural gas facility operated by SoftBank’s SB Energy. At 9.2 gigawatts, it is slated to become the largest gas-fired power plant in history, designed specifically to meet the insatiable electricity demand of the 2026 AI data center boom.

2. In a week that has already seen high-stakes maneuvers in cloud tech and global energy, the defining story for the American household is the emergence of the "boomcession." Coined by antimonopoly advocate Matt Stoller, the term describes a surreal 2026 economic landscape where the macro-indicators, GDP growing at a robust 4.4% and the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, stand in direct opposition to a "felt" reality of financial instability. While the "vibecession" of 2022 was often dismissed as a psychological hangover from the pandemic, the boomcession is rooted in a hard, material divergence: credit card debt has hit a record $1.28 trillion, and while stock owners are reaping the rewards of an AI-fueled productivity surge, the "labor share" (the portion of economic output paid to workers) has plummeted to historic lows.

3. Two titans of American retail are standing on opposite sides of a widening financial chasm, with their new CEOs officially taking the helm this month under vastly different mandates. At Walmart, new CEO John Furner inherited a juggernaut that recently joined the exclusive $1 trillion market-cap club and has successfully transitioned from a "store-first" retailer to a high-tech omnichannel platform in which physical locations serve as automated fulfillment hubs. The Bentonville giant is currently crushing the competition by capturing the "trade-down" segment; more than 75% of its recent market-share gains have come from households earning over $100,000, and it is leveraging AI partnerships with OpenAI and Google to reduce friction in the shopping experience. Conversely, Target CEO Michael Fiddelke is facing a brutal turnaround mission after shares tumbled 40% over the last five years, forcing a massive executive reshuffle and a $5 billion capital investment plan for 2026 to "re-merchandise" the brand and win back middle-class shoppers who have fled to Walmart’s lower prices. While Walmart is reporting record foot traffic and profitable e-commerce growth, Target is grappling with a projected 10% decline in earnings per share and a "weekend traffic crumble" that suggests its status as the destination for discretionary "browsing" is under existential threat.

   Headlines

   1. The FDA is reversing its rejection of Moderna’s influenza vaccine and re-evaluating the application.

   2. Mortgage rates are at their lowest point in a month, down to 6.17%.