🚀 Oil prices fall

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Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. Global oil prices plunged nearly 11% on Monday after President Trump announced a five-day stay on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, citing "productive conversations" toward resolving Middle East hostilities. Brent crude dropped to $99.94 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate fell to $88.13 per barrel, a sharp reversal from Friday’s highs as the market reacted to the temporary reprieve from the "Department of War." Despite the immediate price drop, Goldman Sachs raised its short-term forecasts, warning that if the Strait of Hormuz—which typically handles 20% of global supply—remains restricted to just 5% of its normal flow, prices could eventually eclipse the 2008 record of $147 per barrel. While the International Energy Agency has already released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to combat the crisis, Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned that the current supply shock remains more severe than the 1970s energy crisis, emphasizing that a permanent reopening of the strait remains the only viable long-term solution.

2. Shares in the South Korean entertainment giant Hybe plummeted 15% on Monday after the highly anticipated return of K-pop icons BTS drew a significantly smaller live audience than projected. While analysts had forecast a turnout of 260,000 for the group's first concert in nearly four years, local authorities reported that only 100,000 fans attended the Seoul event, prompting investor anxiety about the band's market dominance following their mandatory military service hiatus. The disappointing figures come despite Nomura recently raising its target price for Hybe to approximately $276, or 410,000 won, based on an ambitious 79-show global tour schedule. Although a lucrative streaming deal with Netflix across 190 countries may provide a financial cushion, the lukewarm in-person reception highlights a shifting landscape where competitors like Blackpink and Stray Kids have gained substantial ground during the group's absence.

3. At the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that global oil markets have failed to account for the true scale of supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that futures are trading on "scant information" and mere perception. Despite a 10% drop in crude prices to $88.13 per barrel following President Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, Wirth cautioned that the physical scarcity of oil is far more severe than current contracts suggest. He noted that the conflict has sidelined roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, with recovery hampered by damaged infrastructure, output cuts from Gulf producers unable to export, and new protectionist storage policies. Even if a diplomatic breakthrough reopens the waterway, the CEO emphasized that rebuilding depleted global inventories and restarting stalled production will be a lengthy process that the market’s current downward curve incorrectly assumes will be swift.

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