🚀 Recession still possible in US

Market Overview
Read time 1.4 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned Thursday that a U.S. recession remains a real possibility despite recent tariff rollbacks, noting continued uncertainty in trade policy is still weighing on business sentiment. While the bank's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, has slightly lowered recession odds to just under 50%, Dimon emphasized that elevated tariffs—even with temporary pauses—are already prompting companies to delay investments. He called for more dialogue and less escalation, but acknowledged that current import taxes remain significantly higher than a year ago and could still pose economic risks.

2. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned Thursday that long-term interest rates may remain elevated as the economy faces more frequent and persistent supply shocks, making it harder for central banks to balance inflation control with job growth. Speaking at a policy conference, Powell said the era of ultra-low rates is unlikely to return, and noted that the Fed’s current framework—adopted in 2020 to tolerate higher inflation—will be re-evaluated in light of recent volatility. While avoiding direct mention of Trump’s tariffs, Powell acknowledged their potential inflationary effect, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on cutting rates despite growing political pressure.

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4. Donald Trump criticized Apple’s manufacturing expansion in India, saying he told CEO Tim Cook he doesn’t want the company building products there and urging a shift to U.S. production instead. Apple plans to make 25% of its global iPhones in India to diversify away from China, which still handles around 90% of assembly. While Apple has pledged $500 billion in U.S. investments and is opening a server facility in Texas, Trump insisted that Apple “build here” and dismissed India’s role despite their offer of zero tariffs on U.S. goods. Experts say shifting iPhone production to the U.S. could drive costs up to $1,500–$3,500 per device.

5. Headlines

   1. China is lifting some export controls on US companies but still limiting the amount of rare earth minerals that can exit the country.

   2. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor stated that Donald Trump’s order limiting birthright citizenship violated Supreme Court precedents in support of an injunction against the order as they await a full court hearing.

   _{* Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for BOXABL’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular here. This is a message from BOXABL.}

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Onwards and Upwards,

Liam Gill