🚀 Tariffs leading to job cuts

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Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. Corporate executives and forecasters are warning that Trump’s tariffs, intended to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., are instead starting to raise costs and push companies toward staff cuts heading into 2026. Companies are reporting moves to reduce headcount, shift production offshore, and navigate supply-chain uncertainty that some say is worse than during the pandemic. Although headline economic data remains steady, with Q3 GDP tracking near 4% and September hiring stronger than expected, signs of labor-market softening are accumulating: ISM’s employment index has fallen to its lowest level since August, firms in sectors from transportation to petroleum are preparing for layoffs or voluntary severance, and the OECD warns the full hit from tariffs hasn’t yet been felt. With major employers like Amazon already cutting tens of thousands of jobs and tariff-related cost pressures mounting, economists see rising risks that the delayed impact of trade duties will weigh more heavily on employment in 2026.

2. OpenAI is scrambling to defend its lead as competition from Google and Anthropic intensifies, prompting CEO Sam Altman to declare a “code red”. OpenAI will refocus on improving ChatGPT while scaling back investments in areas like health, shopping, and advertising. Despite boasting more than 800 million weekly users and a $500 billion valuation, OpenAI is under pressure as Google’s Gemini 3 surpasses benchmarks and Anthropic rapidly expands its enterprise customer base, from under 1,000 to over 300,000 in two years. The company’s aggressive $1.4 trillion infrastructure commitments have raised questions about long-term sustainability, even as Altman insists OpenAI is on track for $20 billion in annualized revenue and aims for hundreds of billions by 2030.

3. A record 202.9 million Americans shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. Turnout was the highest turnout since the NRF began tracking the five-day period in 2017, driven largely by deep discounts, free shipping offers, and other promotions that appealed to financially stretched households. Despite weak consumer sentiment, layoffs at major employers, and the lowest level of holiday-season hiring in at least 15 years, robust turnout has strengthened the NRF’s confidence that holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, with sales expected to rise up to 4.2% from last year. Online shopping surged particularly fast — with Cyber Monday alone hitting $14.25 billion in sales — while in-store traffic also ticked higher, suggesting that even in an uncertain economy, families are prioritizing holiday spending and taking advantage of bargains to stock up on both gifts and everyday goods.

   Headlines

   1. Marvell is acquiring Celestial AI for $5.5B

   2. Okta shares fell as the company refused to provide guidance for 2026.