🚀 Christmas shopping numbers lower than expected

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Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. The long-delayed December retail sales report confirms what many economists feared: the American consumer finally hit a wall at the end of 2025. While the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker had been signalling a robust 4.2% growth rate for the fourth quarter, today’s flat reading (0% growth) suggests that the underlying momentum is much more fragile than previously estimated. The disappointing data, which was held up for weeks by the recent 43-day federal government shutdown, highlights a significant "K-shaped" divergence where upper-income households continue to spend while middle- and lower-income families pull back under the weight of 2.7% annual inflation and a cooling labour market.

2. Super Bowl LX was the official "coming out party" for legal event trading. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour revealed that the platform’s trading volume on Sunday officially shattered records, crossing the $1 billion threshold. This represents a staggering 2,700% year-over-year increase compared to the roughly $27 million traded during the 2025 Super Bowl. The sheer scale of the liquidity suggests that "event contracts" have moved from a niche interest for finance geeks into a mainstream entertainment staple that rivals traditional sportsbooks.

3. The media landscape is currently witnessing a high-stakes standoff as Paramount Skydance attempts to derail a board-approved merger between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). While Paramount has maintained its $ 30-per-share all-cash valuation, the company updated its hostile bid on Tuesday morning with several financial sweeteners to win over skeptical shareholders. These new elements target the specific risks that the WBD board has cited when repeatedly rejecting Paramount’s previous advances in favor of Netflix. Paramount’s latest move focuses on "deal certainty" rather than a higher headline price. By introducing a ticking fee, Paramount agrees to pay WBD shareholders an additional 25 cents per share for every quarter the deal remains unclosed after December 31, 2026. Beyond the ticking fee, Paramount has pledged to fund the $2.8 billion termination fee WBD would owe Netflix if it terminated its existing agreement.

   Headlines

   1. Taiwan’s government has told the White House that the country cannot relocate 40% of its semiconductor production capacity to the United States.

   2. UBS has downgraded its outlook in the US technology industry.