🚀 Fixed Income Could Struggle in 2025

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Market Overview
Read time 1.4 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. Fixed-income investors are bracing for another tough year as nearly $3 trillion in U.S. debt, much of it short-term, matures in 2025, adding to concerns about absorbing already massive Treasury issuance. Treasury's likely move to shift this debt toward longer durations could strain markets further, especially with a $2 trillion budget deficit looming. In 2024, soaring yields and falling prices hammered Treasuries, as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF dropped over 11%, contrasting with a 23% S&P 500 gain. With ongoing fiscal challenges and a shallower path for Fed rate cuts, 2025 is shaping up to test bond markets anew.

2. The U.S. housing market closed 2024 with the highest active listing levels since 2020, but over half of those homes sat unsold for at least 60 days—a stark indicator of a slowing market. Elevated mortgage rates above 7% and rising home prices deterred buyers, leaving many properties stale or overpriced. While pending home sales hit a near two-year high in November, the uptick was modest, reflecting recalibrated buyer expectations rather than robust recovery. Life events and equity tapping eased the seller lock-in effect, but affordability remains a hurdle as inflation-adjusted homeownership costs hit decades-long highs, squeezing first-time and move-up buyers alike.

3. 2024 was a tough year for the restaurant industry, with inflation-weary consumers pulling back spending and casual dining chains facing mounting pressure. U.S. restaurant visits declined, leading to a surge in bankruptcies and closures. Notable chains like Wendy's, Applebee's, Denny's, TGI Fridays, Red Lobster, Noodles & Co., and Bloomin' Brands shuttered underperforming locations to cut losses and streamline operations. Casual dining, in particular, struggled against fast-casual competition, while chains like TGI Fridays and Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy amidst shrinking footprints. Despite closures, some companies remain optimistic, planning strategic reopenings or menu overhauls to regain stability.

4. Headlines

   1. Big Lots has approved the sale of 200-400 of its stores.

   2. Bitcoin was the best “asset” to invest in 2024 but also the most volatile despite its rise.

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