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Market Overview
Read time 1.4 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. October’s U.S. job creation dropped to just 12,000 nonfarm payrolls, far below the anticipated 100,000, marking the weakest monthly gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%, but downward revisions for August and September erased 112,000 previously reported jobs. Notably, the Boeing strike cost 44,000 manufacturing positions, and hurricanes in the Southeast dampened employment further. Despite the weak job numbers, markets showed resilience, with stocks poised for gains and Treasury yields down. This cooling labor market, with wage growth steady at 4% annually, solidifies expectations of another Fed rate cut in the upcoming week.

2. October’s jobs report revealed the slowest employment growth since 2020, with a diverse impact across sectors. Health care and social assistance led the gains with 51,300 new jobs, or 57,000 when private education is included, while government employment rose by 40,000. Wholesale trade and construction posted modest gains, but major declines hit professional and business services (47,000) and manufacturing (46,000), with the Boeing machinist strike a notable factor. Leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors also faced job losses, underscoring what ZipRecruiter’s Julia Pollak described as a broader, sustained labor market slowdown driven more by tight monetary policy than temporary events.

3. For 2025, the IRS has raised the 401(k) employee deferral limit to $23,500, up from $23,000. This adjustment affects workplace savings plans like 401(k)s, 403(b)s, most 457 plans, and the federal Thrift Savings Plan. Catch-up contributions for those 50 and older remain at $7,500, but savers aged 60 to 63 can now add $11,250 extra due to Secure 2.0 provisions. Notably, only 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard. The IRS’s new limits are part of broader 2025 inflation adjustments, covering income tax brackets, capital gains, and estate tax exemptions.

4. Headlines

   1. The jobless rate for White Americans rose from September to October, countering the wider trends in the job market.

   2. The 10-year treasury yield is up above 4.3%.

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Onwards and Upwards,

Liam Gill