🚀 Mortgage demand flat

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Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. Mortgage demand flattened last week after a brief surge in refinances, despite further interest rate declines, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 6.34%, its lowest level since September 2024. Refinancing applications rose just 1% following the prior week’s 58% surge, though they remain 42% higher than a year ago and now make up more than 60% of total mortgage activity, led by strong growth in government-backed VA loans. Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, up only 0.3% from the prior week but 18% higher year-over-year, suggesting buyer demand remains steady despite the fall slowdown. Adjustable-rate mortgage demand, which had recently spiked as borrowers sought lower payments, declined, while rates remained relatively stable this week, as Federal Reserve commentary offered no surprises to the bond market.

2. Sam Altman unveiled OpenAI’s staggering $850 billion plan to build 17 gigawatts of new AI data centers with Oracle, Nvidia, and SoftBank, equivalent to the output of 17 nuclear plants, arguing that even this massive expansion will “look slow” given surging demand. While critics warn of a bubble and point to the circular flow of money among OpenAI and its partners, CFO Sarah Friar said the projects are necessary to tackle a severe global compute shortage. Altman, who has also invested heavily in nuclear energy to power the buildout, acknowledged fears of overinvestment but framed the cycle as a natural part of technological revolutions, with both winners and losers. Long term, he said, the payoff will be “gigantic to society,” hinting that OpenAI will eventually go public and could also introduce new hardware, designed with Jony Ive, that redefines how people use computers.

3. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said the league could start renegotiating its massive media rights contracts as early as 2026, four years before the opt-out clause kicks in, citing rising revenues in other sports, such as the NBA and NHL. The NFL’s current $111 billion, 11-year deal runs through 2033, but Goodell believes the league is “leaving money on the table” and wants to capitalize on the surging value of live sports. Any early talks would require consent from current partners, including Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount, Amazon, and Fox, although new players like YouTube and Netflix are also in the mix. A richer deal would not only boost team valuations and the league’s salary cap but could reshape media spending across all major sports, including MLB.

   Headlines

   1. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Democrats ahead of a potential government shutdown.

   2. Defence stocks rose as Trump encouraged Ukraine to continue fighting to regain the land it had lost to Russia.

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