Funds vs Retail Investor Outlook

Market Overview
Read time 0.7 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey reveals a notable difference in outlook between fund managers and retail traders. Investors expect global growth to weaken in the next 12 months. 48% predict a recession by the end of Q1 2024, with the majority (68%) anticipating a soft landing instead. Investor sentiment remains persistently low, and fund managers expect the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to come in Q2 2024. On the other hand, retail traders display aggressive positioning ahead of the earnings season, as reflected in the AAII Bull/Bear Ratio flipping above 50% for the first time in over two years.

2. Following the announcement of new generative AI subscriptions for Microsoft 365, Microsoft shares soared to new all-time highs. The $30-a-month add-on offers AI tools integrated with Teams, Word, and Excel, providing users with advanced capabilities. Additionally, Microsoft revealed a partnership with Meta, where it will serve as Meta's preferred partner for Llama 2, making the AI language model software accessible to Azure customers. These developments showcase Microsoft's commitment to expanding its AI offerings and solidifying its market position.

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4. Headlines

   1. There is growing traction in the US for Members of Congress, Cabinet members, and the President to be legally banned from owning public stocks.

   2. The US dollar continues to decline, with SocGen now expects the USD to hit its multiyear lows from December 2020 in the next 12 months.

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