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Producer Price Data

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  1. In June, both headline and core producer prices rose by less than expected. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI increased by 0.1% each, falling below consensus expectations of +0.2%. On an annual basis, the headline PPI dropped to 0.1%, the lowest level since August 2020. Similarly, the core PPI reached its lowest year-over-year reading since January 2021. This data, along with the positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, provides the Federal Reserve with further justification to consider reducing the pace of rate hikes.

  2. In June, wage growth in the US economy showed signs of moderation. The three-month moving average for wage growth fell to 5.6% from 6% in May. Similarly, growth for job-switchers and job-stayers also declined, with job-switchers' wage growth decreasing to 6.1% from 6.8% and job-stayers' wage growth dropping to 5.5% from 5.8%. Although wage growth remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, this data suggests a moderation in wage increases.

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    1. The US government’s cost of servicing its debt is now $652B due to increased debt and higher interest rates.

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