US Consumer Sentiment Rising

Market Overview
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Year To Date Performances:

1. The New York Fed's recent consumer survey revealed a decline in one-year inflation expectations for the fourth consecutive month to 3.5%—the lowest since April 2021. Additionally, anticipated short-term price hikes in sectors like gas, food, medical care, and rent have reached lows unseen since late 2020 or early 2021. Despite this, there's a prevailing optimism, with the highest proportion of participants since September 2021 expecting better financial standing next year. Bank of America's data further bolsters this positive sentiment, noting that median deposit account balances are at least 30% above 2019 averages. While the surplus from pandemic-era savings might be depleted by next year, no significant consumer behaviour shift is forecasted. With financial commitment ratios staying below pre-pandemic figures, a decreasing trend in consumer debt relative to GDP, and a positive turn in real wage growth, the resilience of the American consumer stands out.

2. For seven consecutive weeks, oil prices have experienced an uptrend, marking the most extended weekly surge since the transition from December 2021 to January 2022. This growth faces potential challenges from a robust dollar and a faltering Chinese economy. Traders are now left to balance a short-term oversaturated market with forecasted supply and demand disparities in the forthcoming medium to long term. Later today, data from the API will shed light on the current status of US oil reserves.

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4. Headlines

   1. China has announced it will no longer report its youth unemployment rate.

   2. In the last 12 months, the average cost of a major streaming service in the US has increased by just over 25%.

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