🚀 US headed towards 3% growth in 2025

In partnership with

Market Overview
Read time 1.4 minutes

Year To Date Performances:

1. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. economy is heading toward 3% real GDP growth for 2025, citing a “very strong” holiday shopping season and two quarters of roughly 4% expansion despite the federal shutdown. While early estimates point to third-quarter growth around 3.5%, consumer sentiment remains weak, with surveys showing Americans pessimistic about affordability as inflation sits near 3% and food prices climb. Bessent argued that public perceptions are being shaped by media narratives and blamed lingering inflation on policies from the prior administration, echoing President Trump’s dismissal of affordability concerns even as two-thirds of voters say he’s mishandling the economy.

2. Berkshire Hathaway’s B shares, once far ahead of the S&P 500 earlier this year, have swung sharply since Warren Buffett announced he’ll step down as CEO, falling nearly 15% before partially rebounding but still trailing the index by about 7 percentage points when dividends are included. Despite a late-year rally, Berkshire remains unable to match the S&P’s blistering performance, which is up nearly 38% from its April low and nearing record highs as Greg Abel prepares to take over in January. Meanwhile, Melinda French Gates says the Giving Pledge—launched with Buffett and Bill Gates to encourage billionaires to donate most of their wealth—hasn’t gone far enough, noting that although some donors give at massive scale, many haven’t meaningfully started due to trust, governance, and logistical barriers, even as critics argue many signatories have only grown richer since joining.

3. Beef prices are surging—up 14.7% year-over-year compared to a 3.1% rise in overall food—driven by the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951, years of drought that reduced feed availability, and a wave of ranchers choosing to sell rather than retain heifers for breeding. Producers face their own pressures, with input costs up more than 50% in five years, forcing many to supplement scarce grass with grain and weighing on decisions that ultimately slow herd rebuilding. While imports help mostly with ground beef, new tariffs in Brazil and cattle disease in Mexico are adding fresh inflationary pressure, and companies like Omaha Steaks say they’re approaching a breaking point after absorbing rising costs for years. Experts warn that even if ranchers start retaining heifers now, short-term production would dip further before a rebuilt herd eventually cools prices—meaning consumers may be stuck with higher beef costs for at least several more years.

   Headlines

   1. AI spending in China is increasing in response to US limits on AI related sales to China.

   2. Lawyers are expressing significant concerns about whether regulators will allow the Netflix and Warner Bros. deal.